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Monday, January 4, 2010
Peak Oil In and Out of the News
The Peak Oil story sure has evolved over the last several years. From "who are those nutty people who talk about oil running out" to a better understanding by many that total worldwide production capacity may not increase much beyond today, no matter what the cause. This excerpt from a recent ASPO-USA "Peak Oil Review" highlights this progression:
During 2009 the most significant story about peak oil was published by The Guardian (UK) on
November 9th, when reporter Terry Macalister conveyed alarming statements by two whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency. Whistleblower #1, still with the IEA, said "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year [2008]. The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this. Many inside the organization believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.” Such honesty isn’t tolerated by IEA member state USA, which apparently leaned hard on the Agency to bury this hard truth for years. While Time, CNN, the Financial Times and other mainstream sources carried follow-up articles on the whistleblower leak, the story largely disappeared within two weeks. But long-term doubts about the “big number” in IEA forecasts are probably here to stay.
The year opened with a similarly strong warning from a heavy-weight within the oil industry.
Christophe de Margerie, CEO of oil super-major Total SA, had previously issued warnings about
world oil supply constraints. In 2007, he stated that “production of 100 million barrels a day will be difficult.” He upped the ante during 2008, claiming that “world oil production would peak at or below 95 million barrels per day.” On February 10th, 2009, the CEO’s statement could have been issued by ASPO-USA: “world oil production may plateau below 90 million barrels per day.” Other CEOs— Jim Mulva of ConocoPhillips and John Hess of Hess Corp—continue with their own realistic wake-up calls. Houston and Wall Street appear to internalize the peak oil issue.
Yet despite these and other blunt warnings from a growing number of industry insiders, for much of the year the perception of peak oil as a looming issue lost ground in the media. Oil optimists like Daniel Yergin and Michael Lynch pushed back against the peak oil story on op-ed pages of several major US newspapers. Reporters wrongfully continued to link peak oil to “running out of oil,” which they then rightfully asserted wasn’t a near-term problem. A fog of sorts still plagues the issue.
During 2009 the most significant story about peak oil was published by The Guardian (UK) on
November 9th, when reporter Terry Macalister conveyed alarming statements by two whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency. Whistleblower #1, still with the IEA, said "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year [2008]. The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this. Many inside the organization believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.” Such honesty isn’t tolerated by IEA member state USA, which apparently leaned hard on the Agency to bury this hard truth for years. While Time, CNN, the Financial Times and other mainstream sources carried follow-up articles on the whistleblower leak, the story largely disappeared within two weeks. But long-term doubts about the “big number” in IEA forecasts are probably here to stay.
The year opened with a similarly strong warning from a heavy-weight within the oil industry.
Christophe de Margerie, CEO of oil super-major Total SA, had previously issued warnings about
world oil supply constraints. In 2007, he stated that “production of 100 million barrels a day will be difficult.” He upped the ante during 2008, claiming that “world oil production would peak at or below 95 million barrels per day.” On February 10th, 2009, the CEO’s statement could have been issued by ASPO-USA: “world oil production may plateau below 90 million barrels per day.” Other CEOs— Jim Mulva of ConocoPhillips and John Hess of Hess Corp—continue with their own realistic wake-up calls. Houston and Wall Street appear to internalize the peak oil issue.
Yet despite these and other blunt warnings from a growing number of industry insiders, for much of the year the perception of peak oil as a looming issue lost ground in the media. Oil optimists like Daniel Yergin and Michael Lynch pushed back against the peak oil story on op-ed pages of several major US newspapers. Reporters wrongfully continued to link peak oil to “running out of oil,” which they then rightfully asserted wasn’t a near-term problem. A fog of sorts still plagues the issue.
Labels: peak oil
posted by Jamie Lang at 2:25 PM
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