Energy Information Administration Critique
Commissioned by Congress in 1977, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) serves as the statistical bureau of the United States Department of Energy and is charged with creating policy neutral data forecasts and analyses. While the EIA neither formulates nor advocates policy positions, by mission EIA reports and analyses support sound policy making, efficient market development and public understanding about energy. EIA issues a variety of timed reports as well as reports in response to requests from Congress.
While near-term (five years and less) predictions of oil prices and production issued by the EIA display a relatively low margin of error, long-range predictions in oil prices exhibit a high error range. This argues both for caution in relying on EIA long-range price predictions as well as stressing the need for institutional and policy planners to implement worse case scenario oil forecasts in long-range planning.
EnergyLiteracy.org has put together a comprehensive critique of the EIA and their ablity to do long range forecasting and oil prices.
