Energy Primer 101

"Continued reliance on petroleum appears driven only by the mirage of a bygone era of abundant and cheap energy. The nation's increasing involvement in Middle East affairs illustrates only a portion of the energy dependence dilemma, as Americans daily demand more imported petroleum to satisfy an aging system formed on assumptions established prior to 1970." -Klare, Michael T. Blood and Oil. P. 180

Why is Energy so important?

Energy plays the vital role in fueling both natural and manmade systems. While natural ecosystems depend primarily on solar energy, since the Industrial Revolution in the 1800's our economy and infrastructure has increasingly depended on fossil fuels. Rising consumerism, growing population demand, increased energy costs coupled with a finite energy supply and proven environmental challenge force us to carefully evaluate our current energy sources.

Resource Consumption Drivers

Increase in resource consumption is caused by three factors:

1. population growth
2. new uses found for a resource
3. increase in demand for a resource, generally to increase living standards

Growth in population, continued demand for oil in a multitude of applications, and an increase in living standards all combine to cause monumental growth in demand for oil in the US and internationally.

America today has experienced a 57.4 percent leap in foreign-born population from 1990 to 2000.1 Thirty-five million legal immigrants entered the U.S. between 1990 and 2003 alone, with an estimated additional influx of 1.5 million illegal immigrants per year.2 Today, the US faces multiple, compounding ecosystem and developmental problems caused by the drive to consume, of which energy shortages, peak oil, greenhouse gas emission, climate change and water deficiencies represent only a few. These forces only increase the strain on overburdened ribbons of highway, burgeoning suburbs and escalating consumer materialism and government deficits.

The ethical and ecological implications of humanity-as-geological-force confront the ability of society to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Resource Consumption Drivers

In the United States, total energy consumption more than tripled between 1949 and 2000 (32 quadrillion BTUs to 99 quadrillion). A BTU, or British Thermal Unit is the amount of heat required to raise 1 pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit.

Source: Energy Information Administration

Transportation fuels represent the greatest possibility to effect energy change due to the large slice of the American market they consume. Through simple conservation practices and increased efficiency, a decrease in use of oil and thus greenhouse gas emissions and reliance on foreign oil imports can be realized. Additionally, a variety of viable alternatives already exist to supplant traditional gasoline without completely radicalizing the transportation structure.

• Fossil fuels dominate our energy sources, with petroleum (oil) counting for 45% of our supply of total energy in all sectors.
• The United States consumes over twenty-one million barrels of oil per day, roughly twenty-five percent (25%) of the world's total. U.S. automotive gasoline fuel consumption alone accounts for eleven percent (11%) of the world's total oil production.
• Transportation uses 27.4% of all energy used in the U.S. 3
• Transportation contributes 31.9% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. 4
• Only four percent (80,855) of vehicles on the American roads run on alternative fuels, meaning the majority of vehicles (96%) are forced to rely on oil.

Current Energy Trends: Oil

• Until 1970, the United States produced enough oil domestically to meet internal demand.
• 66% of U.S. oil consumption is used for transportation. 5

• Approximately nine percent (9%) of the gross domestic product (GDP) is expended annually on oil consumption. 6 By comparison, the US in 2005 spent 4.7% of the GDP amount on military operations. 7
  • The GDP represents one of the most important economic barometers of a country's health, as it calculates consumption, gross investment and government expenditures, including exports and imports.
• Oil represents our costliest import: According to data released in 2004 by the Energy Information Administration, Americans spent more than $266,666 per minute on foreign oil-or about $16 million per hour. 8
• The performance of the U.S. economy now tends to fluctuate largely with our ability to purchase oil.
  • According to the US Department of Energy, petroleum accounted for 36% of the 2007 trade deficit, or a little over $293 billion in oil alone.
  • This percentage of deficit tied to petroleum imports rose from 32.3% in 2006, and has jumped from the 21.8% of the US trading deficit in 2001.
  • The trade deficit is calculated by measuring the annual amount spent by U.S. individuals, companies, and government agencies on foreign-made products, minus the amount spent by foreign entities on U.S.-made products. The heavy and costly reliance of the U.S. on imported oil is easily seen in these deficit calculations.
• The total economic penalty of our oil dependence, including loss of jobs, output and tax revenues, is estimated between $297 and $305 billion annually.
• Of the past five economic recessions, four of these were spurred by rising oil costs.
• Worldwide, today's oil use outpaces new oil discoveries, with the world using about 12 billion more barrels per year than it finds.

Hubbert's Peak Theory, displaying projected world oil production peaks. Hubbert's theory related to U.S. oil production was proved correct in the 1970's, as domestic oil production declined. This theory is used to support the "Peak Oil" concept, which predicts that global oil production will also peak and fall into decline in the near future. At what time the peak occurs and at what rate production will decline are highly contentious, as show by the above graph. However no matter when and how fast the decline there will be a peak, and we are largely unprepared for it today.

• The total conventional pumping global oil supply is estimated to be 1.05 trillion barrels-assuming a steady rate of demand, the supply will be exhausted in 40 years.
• Despite continually improving technology, we are not discovering new oilfields fast enough, and certainly no giant fields. The majority of the giants were discovered in the 1950s and 1960s, since which discovery rates, and the size of discoveries, have dropped substantially. 9
• If the U.S. decided to stop importing oil, at the current rate of consumption known U.S. reserves would last between 5 and 3.5 years.
• Rick Wagoner, the CEO of General Motors, made the following comment, "As the demand for energy around the world is growing faster than supply. And that's not just a cyclical phenomenon, it's structural ... The world will need 70 per cent more energy in the year 2030 than it did in the year 2004."

The Environmental Symptoms

Beyond the economic costs, our energy emissions contribute roughly sixty-five percent of greenhouse gas production, with gasoline alone accounting for twenty percent of that figure. 10

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that global increases in CO2 concentrations are linked primarily to fossil fuel use.
• Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004.
• Of GHG emission, CO2 levels between 1970 and 2004 grew by 80%.
• Americans comprise a mere 5% of the world population, yet we contribute 45% of the world's toxic CO2 emissions.

Ultimately, sustainability incorporates three pillars: environmental conservation, responsible economic growth and social equity dimensions, as defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987. Stresses arising in either development or the ecosystem transfer naturally across systems, and changes in one part force adaptation in the counterpart. Society therefore can only achieve sustainability through both ecosystem and human well-being.

To read the IPCC report, click here.
To read the U.S. Global Climate Change Research report, click here.

National Security

Our national security is deeply threatened by our economic addiction to foreign oil. In short, our addiction to foreign oil warps our foreign policy in a way that creates enemies (who resent our military intrusions to secure their oil for our use) and threatens our national security.

• The military itself pays a high price for oil: the Department of Defense estimates that each $10 per barrel increase in oil prices costs the U.S. military an additional $1.3 billion dollars.
• The 2003 National Defense Council Fund study estimated fixed military costs to maintain oil flowing from the Persian Gulf at about $49.1 billion per year. This figure does not include the $137 billion per year cost for the Iraq war.
• The U.S. military presence in the Middle East raises the potential for military conflicts with other importing nations as world demand increases and supplies decrease.
• With the majority of oil (60%) now reliant on imports, the US economy and transportation sectors are extremely vulnerable to acts of terrorism, war, or politics.

The Need to Act

Manifold symptoms-a warming globe, sinking water tables, and disappearing flora and fauna- demonstrate that the currently wealthy, prosperous United States balances on a precipice between collapse and renewal. Energy shortages, a peaking oil supply, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are all forces that only increase the strain on overburdened ribbons of highway, burgeoning suburbs and escalating consumer materialism and government deficits.

Catalysts for policy change exist, and include such triggering mechanisms as:

• economic pressure
• technological breakthroughs in alternatives
• social evolution
• ecological shifts
• external pressures, including international conflicts

Yet in the end.While positive policy results and healthier communities from a network of policies should satisfy Americans and promote ecosystem well-being, the greatest threat to liberty itself comes from the disengaged.[1] In the end, institutional reforms cannot succeed without connection and support from among the citizenry. To truly achieve sustainability, ecosystem and human well-being must be coupled.
[1] Putnam, 358.

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References

1. Leon Kolankiewica, "Population Growth: The Neglected Dimension of America's Persistent Energy/Environmental Problems," October 2002 [http://www.mnforsustain.org/energy_kolankiewicz_energy]
2. Stephen Saunders of the Rocky Mountain Climate Coalition, an in class lecture given on January 3, 2007.
3. USDOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
4. EPA
5. James H Kunstler, "The End of the Binge." The American Conservative Sept. 12, 2005.
6. Tim Appenzeller, "The End of Cheap Oil," National Geographic (June 2004), 97.
7. CIA World Factbook. Rank Order - Military expenditures percent of GDP. Retrieved on 2006-05-26.
8. "Safe, Strong and Secure: Reducing America's Oil Dependence" National Resources Defense Council (2004) Accessed on July 22, 2006 at [http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/aoilpolicy2.asp].
9. Peak Oil, Risk and Opportunity," David Bell*, Ian Dunlop** and Garry Glazebrook, April 2008, Keeping Good Companies
10. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, (New York, 2007), based on a document drawn from the World Resources Institute Climate Indicators Tool (CAIT), on-line database version 3.0.